With the 2026 Pulitzer Prizes in the rear-view mirror, itโs time (finally) to turn our attention to what books might win the major 2027 awards (for books published in 2026. I know, itโs nuts. I donโt make the rules). Below are my completely vibes-based front-runners for a few of the high-profile fiction accolades up for grabs this year.
The National Book Award: Kin by Tayari Jones
Jones won the Womenโs Prize in 2019 for An American Marriage, but an NBA would be a major step up in awareness. Kin is published by Knopf after Jonesโs previous couple of books were with Algonquin. Could this follow Percival Everettโs Big 5 switch that saw him win the NBA for James?
The Pulitzer Prize: One Leg on Earth by โPemi Aguda
I loved Agudaโs short story collection, Ghostroots, and am pumped to read her high-concept debut novel, One Leg on Earth. Ghostroots was shortlisted for the NBA, a relative rarity for a short story debut, so she is in the conversation already.
The National Book Critics Circle Award: Transcription by Ben Lerner
The NBCC is probably closest to awarding the kind of books that I like to read the mostโand sometimes that is it, the NBCC and me. Transcription by Ben Lerner is finding a readership that is a little bigger than that, which is tremendous for a strange little book that doesnโt have a plot and jumps quite abruptly right in the middle. But real ones know. The real ones being me and presumably the NBCC.
Amazon/B&N Best Book of the Year: Whistler by Ann Patchett
Somewhat surprisingly, Patchett hasnโt had a book in the awards mix in a serious way since Bel Canto won both the Orange Prize and the PEN/Faulker Award (and was a finalist for the NBCC). These two retailers select a book of the year that means more to actual sales than any of the awards above (and probably all of them together). Patchett writes the sort of accessible, engrossing, yet still thoughtful kinds of books that are the sweet spot here: books people will like, will feel good about having liked, and then will give as gifts when holiday time rolls around. (And I am not sure why, but I feel like Whistler being horse-forward helps its case.) โ JO
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